Market Commentary

April 21st 2018

Estimates for the current period (2018 Q2) haven’t moved much since the Q1 earnings season got underway, but that will likely start showing up this week as move into the heart of the earnings season, with more than 680 companies reporting March quarter results, including 178 S&P 500 members. By the end of this week, we will have seen Q1 results from more than half of the S&P 500 members. With more than 35% S&P 500 members on deck to report results this week, we will have representation from every sector, but the notable ones are below.

Spotlight: Financials

Total earnings for the 29 financial companies who have reported are up +27.8% from the same period last year on +9.1% higher revenue growth, with 89.7% beating EPS estimates and 51.7% beating revenue estimates. For the quarter as a whole, total Finance sector earnings are expected to be up +27% from the same period last year on +5.4% higher revenues. This would follow +0.6% earnings growth in 2017 Q4 on +4% higher revenues.

Featured Recommendations

Wintrust Financial, Inc.  $91.02 (WTFC)

Wintrust Financial Corporation is a bank holding company which provides banking services, trust and investment services, commercial insurance premium financing, short-term accounts receivable financing, and certain administrative services. They provide community-oriented, personal and commercial banking services through their subsidiaries, Lake Forest Bank & Trust Company, Hinsdale Bank & Trust Company, North Shore Community Bank & Trust Company, Libertyville Bank & Trust Company, Barrington Bank & Trust Company, Crystal Lake Bank & Trust Company, and Northbrook Bank & Trust Company.
Target Price $100.12

FATI® Market Rankings

Ranking Market Cap 1 Mth 3 Mth 6 Mth 9 Mth 12 Mth RSR % Stocks Up % Stocks Dwn YTD Return
1 Micro Caps 2.0% 0.0% 6.0% 11.0% 15.0% 2 15.0% 17.0% 5.17%
2 Small Caps 2.0% -2.0% 5.0% 11.0% 15.0% 1 18.0% 19.0% 1.97%
3 Large Caps 1.0% -4.0% 3.0% 7.0% 12.0% 1 17.0% 30.0% 0.11%
4 Mid Caps 1.0% -3.0% 3.0% 7.0% 11.0% 1 22.0% 23.0% 0.00%
5 Nano Caps 1.0% -4.0% 3.0% 5.0% 6.0% 1 15.0% 17.0% -0.42%
6 Mega Caps 1.0% -6.0% 2.0% 7.0% 12.0% 0 28.0% 25.0% -0.79%
FATI® S&G Index -0.74%

FATI® Sector Rankings

Sector 1 Mth 3 Mth 6 Mth 9 Mth 12 Mth RSR % Groups Up % Groups Dwn YTD Return
Oil & Energy 6% -5% 7% 9% 4% 3 14.0% 0.0% -0.21%
Aerospace 5% 4% 9% 23% 33% 3 0.0% 100.0% 0.07%
Industrial Products 4% -1% 7% 14% 19% 3 16.0% 50.0% 2.51%
Basic Materials 4% -3% 11% 22% 21% 2 0.0% 40.0% 2.29%
Medical 1% 1% 8% 10% 23% 2 0.0% 33.0% 7.93%
Retail/Wholesale 2% -4% 10% 10% 5% 2 0.0% 50.0% 0.52%
Transportation 0% -7% 2% 6% 6% 0 50.0% 50.0% -2.05%
Construction -1% -11% 1% 9% 9% 0 28.0% 57.0% -7.85%
Consumer Discretionary 1% -5% 1% 5% 9% 0 33.0% 33.0% -2.76%
Computer/Technology -1% -4% 1% 6% 14% 0 28.0% 71.0% 1.79%
Multi-Conglomerates 3% -6% -2% 2% 8% 0 0.0% 0.0% -3.26%
Utilities 3% 0% -5% -1% 1% 0 25.0% 25.0% -3.06%
Finance 0% -3% 0% 3% 5% 0 0.0% 28.0% -0.77%
Consumer Staples 0% -9% 0% -3% -2% -1 33.0% 16.0% -7.82%
Auto/Truck 1% -10% -6% 7% -14% -1 0.0% 0.0% -4.16%
Business Services 2% -6% -2% 2% -1% -1 50.0% 50.0% -4.34%
FATI® S/G Index -0.74%

Long Trades

Ticker %Chg EPS F1 EPS Grth % F1 EPS Grth % F2 # Anlst in F1  Con. Est. P/E using  F1 Est Mkt Cap Millions FATI Score Next EPS Report Date
Market
SPX -0.55 41.64 56.22 2 17.74 4.22
Large Caps
PGR 5.52 46.68 50.88 9 15.83 $35,548 5.05 20180717
STLD 8.72 69.65 74.48 7 10.38 $11,025 10.15 20180718
Mid Caps
X 18.81 172.61 186.3 7 6.93 $6,446 6.69 20180426
WTFC 5.28 32.1 44.69 8 15.66 $5,120 2.9 20180717
MLNX 18.61 218.68 254.95 4 26.12 $3,951 3.92 20180725
Micro Caps
SOI 1.46 262.85 447.56 6 10.34 $829 10.65 20180508

Short Trades

No Trades

GREEN – Favored Stock
RED – EPS Report ALERT

FATI Score – Measures the dispersion of earnings estimates of analysts. The lower the score the the lower the earnings uncertainty. Scores of 12 or lower are only considered for long trades.

 

Recent Featured Recommendations

Rec. Date Ticker LONG / SHORT % G/L S&P 500 % +/- S&P 500 H/L Price Target Price 8% Stop Price Next EPS Date
1/5/18 MAS $44.46 -8.01% -2.73% -5.27% $40.90 $48.91 $40.90 2/8/18
1/12/18 RGA $163.65 -8.00% -4.17% -3.83% $150.56 $180.02 $150.56 1/29/18
1/19/18 HBAN $15.81 -8.03% 4.99% -13.02% $14.54 $17.39 $14.55 1/30/18
1/26/18 AIT $74.70 -8.01% 7.06% -15.06% $68.72 $82.17 $68.72 4/26/18
2/3/18 CI $204.46 -8.00% 3.33% -11.33% $188.10 $224.91 $188.10 5/4/18
2/10/18 MTH $45.00 13.33% 1.89% 11.44% $51.00 $49.50 $41.40 4/26/18
2/17/18 NSIT $35.42 3.95% -2.32% 6.28% $36.82 $38.96 $32.59 5/2/18
2/24/18 ARCB $33.05 11.95% -2.89% 14.84% $37.00 $36.36 $30.41 5/4/18
3/3/18 CR $91.86 5.90% 0.79% 5.11% $97.28 $101.05 $84.51 4/23/18
3/10/18 KFY $49.59 11.82% 1.58% 10.23% $55.45 $54.55 $45.62 6/19/18
3/17/18 CBPX $27.75 6.85% 3.07% 3.78% $29.65 $30.53 $25.53 5/3/18
3/24/18 CVTI $31.26 -8.00% -3.07% -4.93% $28.76 $34.39 $28.76 4/19/18
3/31/18 XPO $101.81 7.12% -3.73% 10.85% $109.06 $111.99 $93.67 5/2/18
4/7/18 BCC $39.80 7.79% -2.46% 10.25% $42.90 $43.78 $36.62 5/2/18
4/14/18 PATK $56.65 0.00% -0.52% 0.52% $56.65 $62.32 $52.12 4/26/18
4/21/18 WTFC $91.02 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% $91.02 $100.12 $83.74 7/17/18

YELLOW – Target Attained